Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
334K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.
Measured over 334K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 334K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 334K
- Best context
- 56.1% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.2% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.2% at 0-999, 51.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (81 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (5,277 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (11,705 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (5,182 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (144 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (7,036 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (17,982 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (5,912 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (247 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.6% expected score (189 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (9,191 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (24,642 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (11,151 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (305 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (195 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (16,815 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (35,334 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (11,857 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,163 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (119 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (14,441 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (36,053 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (11,185 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (617 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (164 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (16,284 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (28,147 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (6,546 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (282 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (16,838 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (16,880 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (2,470 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (164 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (10,070 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (5,570 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (450 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (2,678 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (463 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.8% — from 334K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 334K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate?
Playing the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 334K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack perform best?
The Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.5% in Blitz (177K games) against 51.6% in Rapid (55K games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack?
The Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 54.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 948 Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 99K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 177K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack a good opening?
The Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.7% of its games and loses 45.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.