TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation

492K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 50.0%Based on 492K games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 50.0%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%4.4%48.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...g6
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation
Analyzen=492K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 50.0%), based on 492K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.5% win rate (4,019 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.4% win rate (11,708 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.9% win rate (33,985 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (68,691 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.6% win rate (109,335 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.2% win rate (127,789 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.7% win rate (96,306 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.9% win rate (35,977 games)
  • 2500+: 43.0% win rate (4,395 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Blitz (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.3% win rate (910 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (224,992 games)
  • Blitz: 47.5% win rate (226,897 games)
  • Rapid: 48.7% win rate (38,141 games)
  • Classical: 47.7% win rate (1,265 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (1,536 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,886 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (588 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,771 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (5,392 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,516 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (67 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (13,850 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (16,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (3,808 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (484 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (26,412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (34,928 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (6,615 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (252 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (38,117 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (59,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (11,201 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (492 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.0% expected score (114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (54,898 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (62,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (10,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (357 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (54,868 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (37,925 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (3,380 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (93 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (26,442 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (8,694 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (814 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,098 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (288 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Polish Opening: Outflank Variation
49.2%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
50.7%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
51.4%
Polish Opening: Schiffler-Sokolsky Variation
52.2%
Continuations (2)
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation, Schiffler Attack
45.3%
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation, Sokolsky Attack
47.8%
Analyze Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate?

The Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 492K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation perform best?

The Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (36K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.9%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation?

The Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 96K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 41.2%-46.6%) win rate for white (910 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate for white (225K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.5%) win rate for white (227K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.0%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 42.7%-47.3%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation a good opening?

The Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.