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Analyzer

Polish Opening: Outflank Variation

377K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.0%Based on 377K games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.7% – 49.0%
Outcome Distribution
46.9%3.9%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...c6
Polish Opening: Outflank Variation
Analyzen=377K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 48.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.7% and 49.0%), based on 377K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.8% win rate (6,906 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (12,598 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (29,617 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.4% win rate (53,096 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.0% win rate (79,055 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (91,146 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (72,807 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.7% win rate (28,951 games)
  • 2500+: 43.3% win rate (2,947 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.3% win rate (2,161 games)
  • Bullet: 47.9% win rate (188,785 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (156,355 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (28,645 games)
  • Classical: 45.7% win rate (1,177 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (2,250 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (3,188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (1,435 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,989 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (5,650 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,863 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (112 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (12,477 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (13,275 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,665 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (1,050 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (21,923 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (24,240 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (5,606 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (571 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (31,184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (39,351 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (7,553 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (396 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (281 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (46,298 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (38,220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (6,089 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (258 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (45,292 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (25,397 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (1,973 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (66 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (21,671 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (6,803 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (450 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (2,701 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (231 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation
48.0%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
50.7%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
51.4%
Polish Opening: Schiffler-Sokolsky Variation
52.2%
Analyze Polish Opening: Outflank Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate?

The Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 377K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation perform best?

The Polish Opening: Outflank Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.8% win rate for white (29K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (51.3%) outperforms Classical (47.8%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation?

The Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 42.2%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.5%-53.0%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (189K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (156K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.8%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Polish Opening: Outflank Variation a good opening?

The Polish Opening: Outflank Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.