Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
242K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.2%.
Measured over 242K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 242K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 242K
- Best context
- 50.7% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.1% at 0-999, 37.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,351 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,342 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (480 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (44 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (3,151 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (2,481 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (553 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (141 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (8,215 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (6,436 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (1,241 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (981 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (17,110 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (13,440 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (2,206 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (99 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (499 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (26,011 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (20,965 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,970 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (102 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (274 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (37,959 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (19,746 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,179 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (73 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (38,116 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (10,942 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (621 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (17,561 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (2,311 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (126 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (2,066 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (66 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit scores 47.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.9% and 47.2% — from 242K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 242K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate?
Playing the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 242K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit perform best?
The Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (3.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (78K games) against 47.1% in Rapid (10K games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit?
The Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 44.6%, draws 1.5% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 152K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 78K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 333 Lichess games.
Is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit a good opening?
The Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 51.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.