Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation
101K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.7%.
Measured over 101K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 101K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 101K
- Best context
- 57.7% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 52.2% at 1000-1199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.5% at 0-999, 55.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (398 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (780 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (203 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,362 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,200 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (739 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,037 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (6,144 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (2,130 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (66 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (4,683 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (11,326 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (3,351 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (235 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (5,355 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (15,592 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (4,062 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (232 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (6,431 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (13,252 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (3,360 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (128 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (5,574 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (6,341 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (834 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (1,581 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (860 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (153 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (166 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (18 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation scores 55.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.2% and 55.7% — from 101K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 101K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate?
Playing the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation, White wins 53.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 101K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation perform best?
The Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 55.7% (25K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.3% in Blitz (57K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (15K games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation?
The Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 51.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 53.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.7%, draws 9.8% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 187 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 55.5%, draws 1.3% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 113 Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 57K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 653 Lichess games.
Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation a good opening?
The Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.5% of its games and loses 42.8%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.