Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation
33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.3%.
Measured over 33K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 33K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 33K
- Best context
- 49.4% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 39.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.6% at 0-999, 55.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (62 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (225 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (238 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (37 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (746 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,130 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (205 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (28 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (1,607 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (3,250 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (595 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.7% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (2,011 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (5,306 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,271 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (67 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (2,707 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (5,121 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,282 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (48 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (2,668 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (2,565 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (334 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.9% expected score (921 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (397 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (77 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (79 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation scores 46.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.3% and 47.3% — from 33K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 33K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate?
Playing the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 33K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation perform best?
The Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.9% (100 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (18K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (3.8K games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation?
The Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 55.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 100 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 503 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 49.8%, draws 8.5% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 146 Lichess games.
Is the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation a good opening?
The Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.5% of its games and loses 50.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.