33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 46.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 47.3%), based on 33K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 56% → 48%
Best in Classical (50%), worst in UltraBullet (35%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.
The Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
UltraBullet (63.8%) outperforms Classical (41.7%) by 22.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 33.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 100 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.3%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.
In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.5%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Classical games, the Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation has a 41.7% (90% CI: 35.1%-48.4%) win rate for white (146 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.
The Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.