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Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack

334K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.6%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.8%Based on 334K games
0%52.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.8%
Outcome Distribution
50.7%3.7%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.a3
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
Analyzen=334K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.8%), based on 334K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.6% win rate (22,338 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.0% win rate (31,321 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (45,478 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.6% win rate (65,364 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.6% win rate (62,415 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.5% win rate (51,423 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.9% win rate (36,403 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.8% win rate (16,105 games)
  • 2500+: 53.1% win rate (3,157 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Rapid (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.6% win rate (948 games)
  • Bullet: 52.0% win rate (98,630 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (176,776 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (54,767 games)
  • Classical: 50.0% win rate (2,883 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (81 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (5,277 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (11,705 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (5,182 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (7,036 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (17,982 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (5,912 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (247 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.6% expected score (189 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (9,191 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (24,642 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (11,151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (305 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (195 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (16,815 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (35,334 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (11,857 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,163 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (14,441 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (36,053 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (11,185 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (617 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (164 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (16,284 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (28,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (6,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (16,838 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (16,880 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (2,470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (164 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (10,070 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (5,570 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (450 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (2,678 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (463 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
51.4%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation
53.5%
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Polish Opening: Dutch Defense
50.3%
Analyze Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 334K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack perform best?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (36K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (54.6%) outperforms Classical (50.0%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 54.6% (90% CI: 51.9%-57.3%) win rate for white (948 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.2%) win rate for white (99K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate for white (177K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.5%) win rate for white (55K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.6%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack a good opening?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.