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Analyzer

Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation

1.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.4%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 53.6%Based on 1.4K games
0%51.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
48.8%5.1%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...Nh6
Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation
Analyzen=1.4K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 51.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 53.6%), based on 1.4K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 40% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.1% win rate (152 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (124 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (136 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (229 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.4% win rate (185 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.3% win rate (227 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (207 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.0% win rate (114 games)
  • 2500+: 42.9% win rate (16 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (61%), worst in UltraBullet (32%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 31.7% win rate (19 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (513 games)
  • Blitz: 48.8% win rate (682 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (162 games)
  • Classical: 61.3% win rate (14 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (79 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (84 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (89 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (71 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
51.4%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation
53.5%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
50.7%
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Analyze Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate?

The Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation perform best?

The Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (185 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.8%) outperforms Rapid (49.2%) by -0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation?

The Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 33.7%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 152 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 16.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 38.6%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 124 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 40.7%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 136 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 229 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 185 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 227 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 207 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 34.5%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 114 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.5%) win rate for white (513 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-51.9%) win rate for white (682 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 42.8%-55.7%) win rate for white (162 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.

Is the Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation a good opening?

The Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.