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Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit

242K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.0%Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 53.1%Based on 242K games
0%53.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 53.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.4%3.0%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...c5
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
Analyzen=242K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 53.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 53.1%), based on 242K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.1% win rate (3,208 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.1% win rate (6,240 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.5% win rate (16,054 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.9% win rate (33,836 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (50,547 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (60,231 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.5% win rate (49,776 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.3% win rate (20,022 games)
  • 2500+: 54.0% win rate (2,133 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.9% win rate (2,069 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (151,540 games)
  • Blitz: 50.8% win rate (77,729 games)
  • Rapid: 50.5% win rate (10,376 games)
  • Classical: 49.5% win rate (333 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,351 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,342 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (480 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (3,151 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (2,481 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (553 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (8,215 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (6,436 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (1,241 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (981 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (17,110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (13,440 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,206 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (499 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (26,011 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (20,965 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (2,970 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (37,959 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (19,746 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (2,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (38,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (10,942 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (621 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (17,561 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (2,311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (2,066 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.6% expected score (66 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation
53.5%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
50.7%
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Polish Opening: Dutch Defense
50.3%
Analyze Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate?

The Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 242K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit perform best?

The Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (20K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.9%) outperforms Classical (49.5%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit?

The Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.1%-55.7%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.0%) win rate for white (152K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.1%) win rate for white (78K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.4%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-54.0%) win rate for white (333 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit a good opening?

The Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.