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Analyzer

Polish Opening: German Defense

19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.3%Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 52.9%Based on 19K games
0%52.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 52.9%
Outcome Distribution
50.5%3.6%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Qd6
Polish Opening: German Defense
Analyzen=19K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 52.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.7% and 52.9%), based on 19K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 51% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.0% win rate (598 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.7% win rate (821 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (1,458 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.6% win rate (2,073 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.9% win rate (2,869 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.8% win rate (3,976 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.2% win rate (4,497 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.4% win rate (2,149 games)
  • 2500+: 54.9% win rate (209 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (6,385 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (10,305 games)
  • Rapid: 48.9% win rate (1,847 games)
  • Classical: 51.7% win rate (102 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (291 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (141 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (254 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (196 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (372 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (806 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (271 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (582 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,162 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (294 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (767 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,688 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (2,287 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,755 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (2,586 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (146 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (998 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (1,070 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (79 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (159 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (47 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
51.4%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation
53.5%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
50.7%
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Analyze Polish Opening: German Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate?

The Polish Opening: German Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: German Defense perform best?

The Polish Opening: German Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: German Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (51.7%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: German Defense?

The Polish Opening: German Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 598 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 821 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.8%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 54.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-60.5%) win rate for white, based on 209 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.8%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.7%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.8%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Polish Opening: German Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Polish Opening: German Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 43.6%-59.7%) win rate for white (102 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

Is the Polish Opening: German Defense a good opening?

The Polish Opening: German Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.