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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit

177 variations · 76M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Queen's Gambit gives White a 54.1% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 8.1%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 54.1% – 54.1%Aggregated from 177 variations
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.1% – 54.1%
ContextOverall · n=76M
Outcome Distribution
52.0%4.1%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.c4
Queen's Gambit
Variations177
Games (Context)76M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Queen's Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Queen's Gambit family has a 54.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.1% and 54.1%), aggregated from 177 variations and 76M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.3% win rate (2,066,942 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.4% win rate (4,961,662 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.1% win rate (9,004,268 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.6% win rate (13,589,362 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.0% win rate (16,549,355 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (15,205,054 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (8,911,507 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (4,466,490 games)
  • 2500+: 47.4% win rate (901,569 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~54%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.6% win rate (154,264 games)
  • Bullet: 52.2% win rate (27,693,102 games)
  • Blitz: 51.8% win rate (37,142,992 games)
  • Rapid: 52.3% win rate (10,253,408 games)
  • Classical: 53.4% win rate (412,443 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (3,108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (634,987 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,052,262 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (374,467 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (2,118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (7,790 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,621,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (2,460,868 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (858,944 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (12,982 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (18,464 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (2,934,339 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (4,497,287 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (1,503,717 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (50,461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (46,327 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (4,378,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (6,882,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,176,880 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (105,423 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (47,138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (5,548,979 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (8,460,717 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (2,368,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (123,767 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (20,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (5,541,955 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (7,637,516 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (1,919,180 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (85,580 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (7,713 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (3,956,182 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (4,100,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (822,947 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (23,890 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (2,711 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,444,232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,805,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (209,997 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (4,537 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.1% expected score (190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (633,098 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (246,074 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (18,522 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (3,685 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (177)

1
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation, Billinger Gambit1.1K games
64.8%
2
Queen's Gambit Declined: Zilbermints Gambit5.3K games
62.6%
3
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation, Christensen Gambit6.5K games
60.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense, Yefimov Gambit11K games
59.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack55K games
58.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Schwartz Defense24K games
58.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit516K games
57.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Slav Gambit112K games
57.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation1.3M games
57.3%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation745K games
57.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line3.3K games
58.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Gunsberg Defense, Prianishenmo Gambit5.6K games
58.1%
Queen's Gambit1.2M games
57.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation3.8M games
56.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Two Knights Defense, Blockade Line14K games
57.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Pseudo-Tarrasch Bishop Attack8.2K games
57.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Janowski Variation659K games
56.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation697K games
56.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation115K games
55.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation945K games
55.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Bg4 Line49K games
55.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System702K games
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense2.2M games
55.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation51K games
55.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Reshevsky Variation116K games
55.3%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense661K games
55.1%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Haberditz Variation22K games
55.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense2.8M games
55.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted5.1M games
55.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation, Quiet Variation405K games
55.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Main Line21K games
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Janowski-Larsen Variation118K games
55.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Orthodox Defense211K games
55.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense125K games
55.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred53K games
55.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation3.5M games
54.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Rochlin Variation161 games
61.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation359 games
58.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense10M games
54.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation508K games
54.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System391K games
54.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line7.3K games
55.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Miles Variation25K games
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation27K games
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line46K games
54.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Modern Line76K games
54.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation752K games
54.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Argentine Variation794 games
57.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation168 games
60.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Anti-Tartakower Variation53K games
54.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation9.0K games
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense2.7M games
54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation1.2M games
54.1%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Gunsberg Defense192K games
54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation58K games
54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation24K games
54.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation183K games
54.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Main Line, Alekhine Variation1.2K games
56.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation72K games
54.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation62K games
54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation120K games
54.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack1.3M games
53.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Lazard Gambit96K games
53.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack20K games
54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Main Line10K games
54.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation62K games
53.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense605K games
53.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Mannheim Variation44K games
53.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation1.7M games
53.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation1.5M games
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation2.0M games
53.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Austrian Defense1.4M games
53.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined9.7M games
53.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Winawer Defense34K games
53.5%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Russian Gambit1.4K games
55.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line73K games
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation35K games
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense43K games
53.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Spielmann Variation1.9K games
54.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Yugoslav Variation16K games
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation13K games
53.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Tartakower Gambit91K games
53.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Godes Variation14K games
53.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Main Line357K games
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Barmen Variation194K games
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Pseudo-Tarrasch666K games
52.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit874 games
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line253K games
52.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Bf5 Line8.3K games
53.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Tartakower Defense109K games
52.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation29K games
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation595K games
52.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Hastings Variation2.7K games
54.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Anti-Tartakower Variation, Petrosian Variation2.8K games
53.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense2.4M games
52.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubow Defense31K games
52.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubov Defense1.5K games
54.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Exchange Variation18K games
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Janowski Variation343K games
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line727K games
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit172K games
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation664K games
52.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Capablanca Variation, Anti-Cambridge Springs Variation9.8K games
52.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Two Knights Defense52K games
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Fianchetto Defense95K games
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit2.0M games
51.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Charousek Variation218K games
52.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense66K games
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Accelerated Mannheim Variation365K games
51.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Rubinstein Variation12K games
52.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Furman Variation7.6K games
52.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Charousek Variation, Miladinovic Gambit1.4K games
53.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Symmetrical Variation8.2K games
52.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense117K games
51.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Slav779K games
51.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation488K games
51.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation35K games
51.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation1.8K games
53.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Teichmann Variation4.8K games
52.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Austrian Defense, Haberditz Variation659 games
54.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Janowski Variation3.5K games
52.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation19K games
51.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation53K games
51.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Knight Defense219K games
51.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Main Line38K games
51.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Pseudo-Tarrasch Variation41K games
51.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation2.2K games
52.5%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Development Variation29K games
51.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation3.8K games
52.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit3.8K games
52.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Borisenko-Furman Variation10K games
51.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alekhine Variation30K games
50.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense583K games
50.5%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Normal Line8.2K games
51.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Pillsbury Attack2.6K games
52.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Steinitz Variation, Exchange Variation28K games
50.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation112K games
50.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line19K games
50.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Normal Line511K games
50.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Alekhine System7.1K games
51.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubov Variation1.1K games
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense215K games
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation445 games
53.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit56K games
49.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Austrian Defense, Gusev Countergambit33K games
49.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense47K games
49.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation2.8K games
50.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Been-Koomen Variation81K games
49.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense86K games
49.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation11K games
49.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line2.9K games
50.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation3.3K games
50.1%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation31K games
49.1%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Linares Variation6.5K games
49.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Uhlmann Variation248 games
53.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Austrian Attack, Salvio Countergambit127K games
48.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Westphalian Variation22K games
48.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin122K games
48.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Pseudo-Tarrasch Variation, Primitive Pillsbury Variation39K games
48.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation36K games
48.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Alekhine System, Main Line4.0K games
49.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation1.5K games
49.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System468 games
51.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation1.0K games
49.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation300 games
51.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense112K games
46.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Slav, Abrahams Variation12K games
46.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation1.3K games
47.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation253 games
49.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Krenosz Variation359 games
47.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Alekhine System, Smyslov Variation237 games
47.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation123 games
48.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Slav, Junge Variation1.8K games
41.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Bernstein Variation, Mar del Plata Gambit115 games
44.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Pseudo-Tarrasch Variation, Canal Variation549 games
38.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Lasker Trap69K games
34.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Slav, Koomen Variation221 games
34.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Gambit family has a 52.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.0%) win rate for white, aggregated from 177 variations and 76M rated games from Lichess.

How many Queen's Gambit variations are there?

This analysis covers 177 Queen's Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (5.0M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Queen's Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.6%) outperforms Blitz (51.8%) by 1.8% across all Queen's Gambit variations.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit?

Queen's Gambit games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Queen's Gambit a good opening family?

The Queen's Gambit family is statistically favors white overall with a 52.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.0%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 177 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.