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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations

8.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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2...d6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.1%

45%55%
Floor50.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 8.6M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.6M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
8.6M
Best context
55.9% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
40.7% at 2500+ Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...b5?? · Black wins: 50.3% · 4.7M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.6% at 0-999, 45.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (985 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (86,754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (95,063 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (34,246 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (282 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (2,190 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (206,909 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (265,405 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (83,859 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (1,506 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (3,266 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (335,818 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (553,696 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (180,258 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (5,086 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (3,268 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (437,679 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (897,500 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (306,360 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (14,746 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (472,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1,097,802 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (374,293 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (21,334 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (854 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (423,285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (988,577 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (300,286 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (12,697 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (309,920 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (522,160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (111,917 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (2,194 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (200,521 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (163,605 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (20,825 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (278 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (41,553 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (13,564 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (719 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (34 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line
46.1%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Tartakower
50.0%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order
48.7%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit
46.2%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted
44.4%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.1% — from 8.6M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
8.6M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 8.6M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (217K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.9% in Blitz (4.6M games) against 50.9% in Rapid (1.4M games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 217K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 560K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.0M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 946K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 385K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.2%, draws 1.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 2.5M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 4.6M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 51.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 58K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.1% of its games and loses 48.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.