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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation

9.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.2%

45%60%
Floor52.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 9.3M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.3M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.3M
Best context
61.5% at 2500+ Rapid
Worst context
46.8% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.0% at 0-999, 62.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (97 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (32,074 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (44,197 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15,042 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (189 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (112,636 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (142,820 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (40,910 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (649 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (564 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (244,694 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (388,804 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (105,714 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (2,754 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (1,601 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (428,103 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (803,832 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (221,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (10,512 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (598,671 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,235,298 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (360,407 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (19,605 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (429 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (644,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,272,194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (348,803 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (15,205 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (178 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (560,841 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (687,190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (156,284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (3,837 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (145 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (425,183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (250,188 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (31,227 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (476 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (108,692 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (21,017 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (767 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (39 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations
48.0%
Continuations (9)
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense
49.4%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined
48.3%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange
59.5%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation
53.1%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation
49.2%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Milner-Barry Attack
52.9%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack, Ivanchuk Line
43.4%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation scores 52.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.1% and 52.2% — from 9.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 9.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (131K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.1% in Blitz (4.8M games) against 52.3% in Rapid (1.3M games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 92K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 297K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 743K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 707K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.3%, draws 7.3% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 131K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 1.0% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 3.2M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 4.8M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 48.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 53K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.2% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.