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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense

966K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.6%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 47.7%Based on 966K games
0%47.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
44.6%6.0%49.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qxd5
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense
Analyzen=966K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 47.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 47.7%), based on 966K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (1,407 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (5,686 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (18,897 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.9% win rate (62,186 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.9% win rate (155,790 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.4% win rate (270,434 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (255,893 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.4% win rate (165,955 games)
  • 2500+: 39.0% win rate (29,904 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Blitz (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.7% win rate (94 games)
  • Bullet: 44.7% win rate (238,936 games)
  • Blitz: 44.5% win rate (581,047 games)
  • Rapid: 45.1% win rate (138,600 games)
  • Classical: 44.9% win rate (7,475 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (597 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (600 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (208 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,647 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (2,406 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (616 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (6,678 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9,964 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (16,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (36,800 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (8,336 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (480 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (30,958 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (97,712 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (25,237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (1,868 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (45,999 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (174,129 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (47,193 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (3,098 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (54,310 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (159,651 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (40,271 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (1,637 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (61,200 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (90,224 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (14,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (298 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (19,988 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (9,561 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (346 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (4)
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange
59.5%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation
49.2%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Milner-Barry Attack
52.9%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 966K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (30K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.8%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 156K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 270K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 256K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 166K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white (239K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white (581K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.9%) win rate for white (139K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.5%-46.4%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense is statistically favors white with a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.