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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense

966K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.6%

40%55%
Floor47.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.7%.

Measured over 966K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 966K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
966K
Best context
52.7% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Worst context
43.0% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.0%
Draws
6.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 59.5% at 0-999, 45.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (597 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (600 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (208 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,647 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (2,406 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (616 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (6,678 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9,964 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (16,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (36,800 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (8,336 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (480 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (30,958 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (97,712 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (25,237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (1,868 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (45,999 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (174,129 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (47,193 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (3,098 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (54,310 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (159,651 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (40,271 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (1,637 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (61,200 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (90,224 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (14,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (298 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (19,988 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (9,561 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (346 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (4)
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange
59.5%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation
49.2%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Milner-Barry Attack
52.9%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 47.7% — from 966K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
966K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 966K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (5.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (581K games) against 48.7% in Rapid (139K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 156K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 270K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.0%, draws 6.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 256K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 166K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 8.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 239K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 581K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.1%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 139K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.9%, draws 9.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.6% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.