Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
18M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 18M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 18M
- Best context
- 58.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 41.8% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.6% at 0-999, 54.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (2,274 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (167,102 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (300,659 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (141,164 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (1,214 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (6,652 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (369,241 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (750,308 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (277,279 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (5,482 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (15,172 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (652,220 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,569,049 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (570,454 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (18,330 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (14,981 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (927,086 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (2,331,626 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (906,179 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (44,136 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (7,149 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,008,496 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (2,509,232 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (983,779 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (53,674 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (2,967 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (813,655 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,786,789 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (611,617 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (19,249 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (424 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (426,799 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (548,915 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (129,784 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (2,544 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (129,447 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (49,852 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (7,933 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (56 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (12,542 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (933 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (73 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack scores 48.9% for White — we are 90% confident it is 48.9% — from 18M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 18M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 18M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (9.8M games) against 48.2% in Rapid (3.6M games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack?
The Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 612K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 46.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 46.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.8M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 4.2M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 4.6M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 3.2M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 187K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 0.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 50K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 4.5M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 9.8M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 3.6M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 145K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.2% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.