Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
18M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 18M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 18M
- Best context
- 59.2% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 40.7% at 2500+ Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.1% at 0-999, 42.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (1,781 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (165,205 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (200,912 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (62,446 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (431 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (3,807 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (410,779 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (558,379 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (162,778 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (2,164 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (3,700 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (726,596 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,144,177 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (338,733 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (7,478 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (4,614 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (997,080 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,926,986 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (561,363 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21,080 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (2,854 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,103,598 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (2,513,449 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (723,175 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (29,348 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (1,380 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,001,014 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,212,711 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (629,265 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (17,210 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (597 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (670,268 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (950,906 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (214,754 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (3,615 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (172 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (367,997 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (236,972 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (31,767 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (555 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (63,566 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (15,693 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (691 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 34.8% expected score (28 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian scores 49.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.5% and 49.6% — from 18M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 18M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 18M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (431K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (9.8M games) against 50.1% in Rapid (2.7M games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian?
The Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 431K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.5M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 4.4M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 3.9M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 637K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.4%, draws 1.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 5.5M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 9.8M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.7M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 49.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 82K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.7% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.