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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit

8.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.6%

45%55%
Floor50.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 8.3M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.3M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
8.3M
Best context
60.9% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
41.1% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.9% at 0-999, 57.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (743 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (97,285 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (184,699 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (62,454 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (407 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (1,726 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (207,247 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (393,086 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (154,088 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (2,261 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (3,072 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (336,329 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (580,528 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (251,100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (8,088 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (7,499 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (498,493 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (705,791 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (276,945 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (15,721 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (9,976 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (635,227 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (768,414 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (223,184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (3,171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (668,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (642,313 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (131,497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (4,887 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (551,252 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (308,561 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (43,647 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (909 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (765 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (369,574 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (93,094 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (8,137 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (180 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (67,311 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (8,855 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (683 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (2)
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation
51.4%
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense
42.8%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit scores 50.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 50.7% — from 8.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
8.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 8.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (77K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (3.7M games) against 48.7% in Rapid (1.2M games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 346K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 758K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 906K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 472K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 77K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 47.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 3.4M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 3.7M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 46.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 45K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.9% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.