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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation

286K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.2%

45%55%
Floor51.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.4%.

Measured over 286K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 286K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
286K
Best context
54.2% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
46.6% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.9% at 0-999, 39.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (800 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1,552 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (524 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (2,619 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (4,467 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (5,410 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (12,355 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (3,423 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (85 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (9,528 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (26,901 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (8,068 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (13,446 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (42,611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (14,313 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (746 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (16,003 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (43,849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (14,457 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (542 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (14,911 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (21,054 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (5,595 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (116 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (12,350 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,988 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (631 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2,754 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (151 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation scores 51.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.1% and 51.4% — from 286K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
286K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 286K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.0% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.0% in Blitz (158K games) against 51.9% in Rapid (48K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.1%, draws 1.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 199 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 78K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 158K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 49.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 48.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Center Formation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.1% of its games and loses 46.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.