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Sicilian Defense: Closed

12M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%55%
Floor51.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 12M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
12M
Best context
59.2% at 2500+ Rapid
Worst context
45.5% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.9% at 0-999, 57.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.4% expected score (349 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (60,295 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (99,858 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (50,750 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (526 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (1,138 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (155,444 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (183,252 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (84,572 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (1,960 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (3,717 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (316,452 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (352,234 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (130,402 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (5,457 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (7,931 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (565,625 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (627,999 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (191,119 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (12,259 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (9,943 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (859,443 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (976,955 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (229,660 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (15,541 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (5,931 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (1,124,225 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,293,490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (225,532 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (12,802 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (2,097 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,130,280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,084,929 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (153,472 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (5,107 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (722 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,052,833 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (558,049 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (50,635 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (907 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.4% expected score (183 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (288,225 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (41,711 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (1,341 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (32 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations
48.0%
Continuations (10)
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional
49.2%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation
52.6%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Chameleon Variation
51.1%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Korchnoi Defense
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Anti-Sveshnikov Variation, with d6
46.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Anti-Sveshnikov Variation, with Nf6
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2
48.2%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4
51.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Grob Attack
51.3%
Sicilian Defense: Closed, Smyslov Variation
56.2%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Closed PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Closed scores 51.8% for White — we are 90% confident it is 51.8% — from 12M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
12M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Closed, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 12M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Closed perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.9% (331K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Closed scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.9% in Blitz (5.2M games) against 50.8% in Rapid (1.1M games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Closed?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 212K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 426K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 808K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 2.7M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 2.4M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 331K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 1.6% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 5.6M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 5.2M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 46.7%, draws 6.0% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.8% of its games and loses 46.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.