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Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional

5.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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2...Nc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.0%

45%55%
Floor49.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 5.8M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.8M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
5.8M
Best context
57.0% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
36.5% at 2500+ Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...g5?! · Black wins: 56.2% · 2.5M games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.1% at 0-999, 41.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (374 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (42,733 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (72,463 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (30,604 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (203 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (1,001 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (109,111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (133,058 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (58,204 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (1,634 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (217,356 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (238,572 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (86,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (2,976 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (3,078 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (362,231 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (392,401 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (115,625 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (6,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (4,060 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (496,363 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (548,637 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (117,585 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (6,184 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (2,553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (583,222 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (579,916 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (92,819 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (3,738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (1,122 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (496,384 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (346,526 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (49,587 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (1,278 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (411 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (336,743 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (154,371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (17,951 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (362 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (165 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (73,148 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (14,170 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (666 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional scores 49.0% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.0% — from 5.8M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
5.8M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 5.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (146K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (2.5M games) against 50.5% in Rapid (570K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 302K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 547K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 880K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 895K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 510K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 88K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 2.7M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 2.5M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 570K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 50.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.1% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.