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Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation

536K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.8%

45%60%
Floor54.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.9%.

Measured over 536K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 536K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
536K
Best context
59.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
48.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.9% at 0-999, 58.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (752 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (875 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,711 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,412 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (878 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.4% expected score (75 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (6,208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (7,121 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (1,974 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (50 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (12,069 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (20,958 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (4,978 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (239 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (24,444 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (46,626 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (9,801 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (504 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (42,889 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (89,601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (14,572 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (770 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (53,169 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (81,406 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (12,205 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (52,908 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (29,992 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (2,891 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (11,030 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.1% expected score (29 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation scores 54.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.7% and 54.9% — from 536K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
536K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 536K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.3% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.7% in Blitz (280K games) against 54.2% in Rapid (48K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 81K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 148K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 147K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 54.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 86K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 55.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 38.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 284 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 206K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 280K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 48.1%, draws 7.7% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Fianchetto Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.6% of its games and loses 43.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.