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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.1%

40%55%
Floor47.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.7%.

Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
18K
Best context
51.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
43.4% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.7% · Classical best · Blitz worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.3% at 0-999, 44.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (840 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (363 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (973 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (380 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,108 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (605 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (485 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,402 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (782 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (996 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (793 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (459 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (427 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (536 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation scores 48.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.7% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (2.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (9.2K games) against 45.7% in Rapid (4.4K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 218 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 204 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 50.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.