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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.1%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.7%Based on 18K games
0%48.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%3.6%50.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qa5
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.7%), based on 18K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.7% · Classical best · Blitz worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.1% win rate (1,396 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.4% win rate (1,778 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.1% win rate (2,117 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (2,739 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.2% win rate (2,967 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.1% win rate (3,519 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (2,135 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (1,017 games)
  • 2500+: 47.2% win rate (218 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.0% win rate (62 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (4,003 games)
  • Blitz: 47.0% win rate (9,182 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (4,435 games)
  • Classical: 38.2% win rate (204 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (840 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (363 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (973 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (380 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,108 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (605 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (485 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,402 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (782 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (996 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (793 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (459 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (427 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (536 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.2%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 43.4%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 218 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.1%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.4%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 57.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-63.3%) win rate for white (204 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.