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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation

549K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.4%

45%55%
Floor49.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.5%.

Measured over 549K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 549K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
549K
Best context
54.3% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
39.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.0% at 0-999, 43.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (229 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (129 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (562 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (3,487 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (3,389 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (9,656 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (14,781 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (2,485 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (20,951 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (46,053 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (7,750 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (389 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (37,180 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (102,180 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (15,328 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (956 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (43,699 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (107,834 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (13,871 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (499 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 64.5% expected score (40 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (53,186 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (41,727 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (3,404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (15,476 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (1,517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.6% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.3% and 49.5% — from 549K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
549K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 549K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (1.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (318K games) against 49.6% in Rapid (44K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 409 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 156K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 166K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 98K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 262 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 185K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 318K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.1%, draws 8.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Push Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.1% of its games and loses 48.4%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.