Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation
47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.0%.
Measured over 47K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 47K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 47K
- Best context
- 58.0% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 50.2% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 33.0% at 0-999, 47.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (99 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (344 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (398 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (41 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,111 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (1,890 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (230 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,988 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (7,835 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (915 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (70 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (3,496 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (10,372 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,534 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (87 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (6,019 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (6,784 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (623 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (2,158 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (503 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.2% and 53.0% — from 47K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 47K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 47K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.0% (2.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.8% in Blitz (28K games) against 52.4% in Rapid (3.4K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.4%, draws 1.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 143 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 786 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.9%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.8%, draws 7.1% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 56.7%, draws 6.6% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.0%. It rests on 188 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Dubois Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.9% of its games and loses 44.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.