Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation
134K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.
Measured over 134K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 134K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 134K
- Best context
- 52.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 44.4% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.2% at 0-999, 63.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (217 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (170 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (769 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (756 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (175 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (2,140 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (2,649 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (599 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (3,728 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (6,818 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,716 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (52 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (6,732 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (13,683 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (3,491 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (209 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (8,769 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (20,882 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (4,457 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (215 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (11,794 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (19,360 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,370 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (57 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (9,011 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (8,107 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (1,584 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,085 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (376 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 88.1% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation scores 48.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.2% and 48.6% — from 134K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 134K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 134K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (73K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (15K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 42.2%, draws 1.3% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 433 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 45.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 46.6%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 46.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 45K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 73K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 558 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Deferred Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.5% of its games and loses 49.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.