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Sicilian Defense: Kopec System

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.1%

45%55%
Floor48.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.5%.

Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
41K
Best context
56.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
40.2% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.8% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.7% at 0-999, 52.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 24.7% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (901 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (978 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (634 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 19.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,382 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,513 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (719 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,837 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (2,060 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (894 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (2,471 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,397 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (951 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (95 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (2,761 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,959 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (787 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,629 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (4,454 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (861 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (2,450 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (1,728 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,957 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (219 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kopec System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System scores 49.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.7% and 49.5% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Kopec System performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (3.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (19K games) against 45.5% in Rapid (5.5K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System?

The Sicilian Defense: Kopec System has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 41.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 43.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 40.6%, draws 28.9% and loses 30.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 357 Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 41.4%, draws 1.7% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 270 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 42.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 34.8%, draws 6.2% and loses 59.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 250 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kopec System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Kopec System is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.0% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.