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Sicilian Defense: French Variation

7.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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2...e6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.7%

45%55%
Floor50.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 7.1M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
7.1M
Best context
58.1% at 1000-1199 Classical
Worst context
38.1% at 2500+ Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qc7 · Black wins: 52.7% · 2.3M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.0% at 0-999, 42.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (509 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (68,963 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (70,313 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (20,791 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (162 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (1,690 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (185,547 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (217,005 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (56,307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (721 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (3,695 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (334,546 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (498,751 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (128,097 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (2,914 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (5,127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (469,062 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (757,973 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (208,881 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (8,414 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (4,017 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (517,748 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (821,810 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (229,946 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (10,999 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (2,142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (466,723 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (658,995 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (163,933 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (5,246 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (305,224 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (353,300 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (56,784 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (1,255 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (196,090 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (155,992 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (13,636 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (247 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (43,973 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (16,557 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (684 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (24 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (3)
Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open
48.1%
Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Westerinen Attack
48.3%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: French Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation scores 50.7% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 50.7% — from 7.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
7.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 7.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: French Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: French Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (161K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.4% in Blitz (3.6M games) against 51.0% in Rapid (879K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: French Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 161K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 461K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 968K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 717K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 366K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.9%, draws 7.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.0%, draws 1.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.6M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 3.6M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 879K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 50.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: French Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.9% of its games and loses 47.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.