Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation
547K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.1%.
Measured over 547K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 547K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 547K
- Best context
- 56.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.0% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.1% at 0-999, 56.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (40 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (2,413 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,524 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (937 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (5,740 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (9,830 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (2,860 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (51 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (9,649 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (21,849 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6,926 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (195 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.9% expected score (48 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (15,467 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (37,089 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (13,152 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (703 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 34.9% expected score (35 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (20,484 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (55,665 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (18,819 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (1,244 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (26,403 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (75,466 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (21,406 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (1,039 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (29,961 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (70,884 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (14,152 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (454 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (25,548 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (39,107 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (4,339 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (66 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (8,176 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (2,849 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (131 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation scores 51.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.1% — from 547K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 547K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 547K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (316K games) against 50.8% in Rapid (83K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 96K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 124K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 115K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.6%, draws 7.0% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 41.2%, draws 0.7% and loses 58.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 223 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 144K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 316K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 83K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 45.6%, draws 7.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Kramnik Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.6% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.