Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation
8.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.
Measured over 8.2K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.2K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 8.2K
- Best context
- 53.2% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.9%
- Draws
- 5.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.5% at 0-999, 45.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (62 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (56 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (138 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (254 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (30 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (302 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (963 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (128 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (478 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,560 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (319 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (521 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,233 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (243 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (527 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (831 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (106 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (215 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (148 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation scores 49.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 50.8% — from 8.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 8.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation, Black wins 47.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 8.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 59.4% (127 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (5.1K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (842 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 58.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 127 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 423 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.9%, draws 10.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 370 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 842 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Classical Variation, Paulsen Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.3% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.