TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line

114K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.5%Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.7%Based on 114K games
0%46.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
43.2%6.6%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bg4
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line
Analyzen=114K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 46.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 46.7%), based on 114K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.3% win rate (34 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (200 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (780 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (2,950 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.1% win rate (10,678 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.4% win rate (28,926 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.9% win rate (37,581 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.5% win rate (28,097 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (4,619 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (44%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 43.2% win rate (29,159 games)
  • Blitz: 43.0% win rate (70,736 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (13,280 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (689 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (120 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (310 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (392 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (77 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (895 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,679 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (360 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (2,318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (6,900 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,350 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (5,576 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (19,433 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (277 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (7,594 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (24,526 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (5,216 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (245 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (9,372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (16,127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (2,954 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (1,603 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 114K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (28K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.2%) outperforms Classical (47.9%) by 4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 200 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 780 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.7%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.2%) win rate for white (71K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.2%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 44.7%-51.0%) win rate for white (689 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.