Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line
114K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.7%.
Measured over 114K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 114K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 114K
- Best context
- 53.0% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.6% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.4%
- Draws
- 6.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.6% at 0-999, 47.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (120 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (64 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (310 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (392 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (77 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (895 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,679 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (360 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (2,318 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (6,900 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,350 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (109 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (5,576 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (19,433 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,640 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (277 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (7,594 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (24,526 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (5,216 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (245 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (9,372 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (16,127 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (2,561 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (37 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (2,954 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (1,603 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (59 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line scores 46.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.3% and 46.7% — from 114K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 114K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 114K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 50.4% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.6% in Blitz (71K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (13K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 200 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 780 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.5%, draws 8.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.5%, draws 9.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 71K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.2%, draws 8.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.2%, draws 10.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 689 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Modern Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.2% of its games and loses 50.2%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.