Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation
58K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.3%.
Measured over 58K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 58K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 58K
- Best context
- 50.3% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.3% at 1000-1199, 48.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (42 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (171 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (156 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (658 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,083 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (111 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,989 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (5,581 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (759 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (3,863 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (12,763 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,631 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (123 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (7,261 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (15,416 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (1,250 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (40 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (2,956 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (1,626 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (66 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation scores 47.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 47.3% — from 58K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 58K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 58K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (8.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.9% in Blitz (37K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (3.9K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 368 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.2%, draws 8.1% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.9%, draws 12.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 238 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Sveshnikov Variation, Novosibirsk Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.3% of its games and loses 50.4%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.