TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation

4.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.6%Range (90% confident): 44.4% – 46.7%Based on 4.8K games
0%45.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.4% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
42.9%5.3%51.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...g6
Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation
Analyzen=4.8K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 45.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.4% and 46.7%), based on 4.8K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 71% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 71.4% win rate (9 games)
  • 1000-1199: 58.4% win rate (37 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (134 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.8% win rate (312 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.3% win rate (983 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.3% win rate (1,601 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.1% win rate (1,291 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.6% win rate (365 games)
  • 2500+: 41.8% win rate (38 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (28%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.5% win rate (1,283 games)
  • Blitz: 41.9% win rate (2,823 games)
  • Rapid: 38.5% win rate (625 games)
  • Classical: 28.4% win rate (39 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (156 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (284 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (562 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (353 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (789 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (231 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.3% expected score (159 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.5%) outperforms Bullet (48.7%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 44.2%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 134 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 312 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.5%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 983 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 365 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-51.0%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.1%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-57.5%) win rate for white (625 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Maróczy Bind, Hedgehog Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.