Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation
101 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
31.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.2%.
Measured over 101 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 1.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 101 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 101
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 27 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 98.5%
- Draws
- 1.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 35.4% at 0-999, 25.8% at 2200-2499.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation scores 31.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 24.2% and 39.2% — from 101 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 101+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation, Black wins 30.7%, draws 1.5% and loses 67.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.5%. It rests on 101 rated games from Lichess.
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation has a sharpness score of 98.5 (very decisive), meaning 98.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 30.7% of its games and loses 67.8%. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.