TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation

101 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score31.5%Range (90% confident): 24.2% – 39.2%Based on 101 games
0%31.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 24.2% – 39.2%
Outcome Distribution
30.7%1.5%67.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...f5
Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation
Analyzen=101
Avg Length27 moves
Sharpness99%
Draw Rate1.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation has a 31.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 24.2% and 39.2%), based on 101 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 29% → 11%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200

  • 0-999: 28.8% win rate (28 games)
  • 1000-1199: 27.3% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.7% win rate (18 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • 1600-1799: 28.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1800-1999: 25.9% win rate (12 games)
  • 2000-2199: 14.3% win rate (9 games)
  • 2200-2499: 11.1% win rate (3 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (33%), worst in Classical (14%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 33.3% win rate (30 games)
  • Blitz: 32.6% win rate (43 games)
  • Rapid: 27.3% win rate (26 games)
  • Classical: 14.3% win rate (2 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599———
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+—————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation has a 67.8% (90% CI: 60.1%-75.2%) win rate for white, based on 101 rated games from Lichess.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation has a sharpness score of 98.5 (very decisive), meaning 98.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Frederico Variation is statistically favors white with a 67.8% (90% CI: 60.1%-75.2%) win rate across all ratings. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.