24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 49.5%), based on 24K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 14% → 40%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (39%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 48.1% win rate for white (3.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (48.5%) outperforms Classical (42.7%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a sharpness score of 92.0 (decisive), meaning 92.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 248 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 14.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.2%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.8%-50.2%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.2%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 36.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (145 Lichess games). Draw rate is 18.1%.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Czerniak Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.