Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation

242K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
3.e5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.2%

45%60%
Floor52.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.3%.

Measured over 242K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 242K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
242K
Best context
61.7% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Worst context
49.1% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 58.0% at 0-999, 60.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (1,191 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (2,988 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.1% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,402 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (5,788 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (2,971 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (4,000 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (9,392 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (4,504 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (6,420 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (14,598 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (5,712 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (429 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (9,436 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (21,147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (6,446 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (433 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (13,190 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (28,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (5,922 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (267 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (15,410 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (30,205 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (5,438 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (90 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (15,096 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (18,826 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (1,985 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (4,799 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (2,540 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation scores 52.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.0% and 52.3% — from 242K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
242K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 242K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 57.4% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.8% in Blitz (134K games) against 55.6% in Rapid (35K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 55.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 56.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.5%, draws 8.9% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 57.0%, draws 1.5% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 422 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 72K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 134K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 57.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.0% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.