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Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.3%Range (90% confident): 42.6% – 43.9%Based on 15K games
0%43.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.6% – 43.9%
Outcome Distribution
40.1%6.2%53.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nxc3
Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 43.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.6% and 43.9%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~36%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 35.6% win rate (146 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.1% win rate (288 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.8% win rate (463 games)
  • 1400-1599: 38.8% win rate (681 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.5% win rate (895 games)
  • 1800-1999: 39.7% win rate (1,488 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.3% win rate (3,230 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.3% win rate (5,682 games)
  • 2500+: 37.2% win rate (2,190 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (46%), worst in Rapid (34%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (9 games)
  • Bullet: 42.0% win rate (5,734 games)
  • Blitz: 39.7% win rate (8,048 games)
  • Rapid: 33.7% win rate (1,225 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (47 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.4% expected score (60 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 34.5% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (210 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (275 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (432 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (895 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 30.2% expected score (152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (976 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (1,969 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (275 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (2,208 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (3,299 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (1,428 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (717 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (45 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 62.3% win rate for white (288 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (59.5%) outperforms Bullet (53.0%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 62.7% (90% CI: 56.1%-69.1%) win rate for white, based on 146 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 62.3% (90% CI: 57.6%-67.0%) win rate for white, based on 288 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 52.1%-59.6%) win rate for white, based on 463 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 681 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.3%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 895 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.1%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.1%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a 59.5% (90% CI: 57.2%-61.8%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.