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Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.3%

35%55%
Floor42.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.9%.

Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
15K
Best context
48.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
38.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
93.8%
Draws
6.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 36.8% at 0-999, 42.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.4% expected score (60 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 34.5% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (210 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (275 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (432 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (895 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 30.2% expected score (152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (976 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (1,969 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (275 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (2,208 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (3,299 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (1,428 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (717 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (45 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation scores 43.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.6% and 43.9% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation, Black wins 40.1%, draws 6.2% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 44.6% (5.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 43.3% in Blitz (8.0K games) against 37.1% in Rapid (1.2K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 35.6%, draws 1.7% and loses 62.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.5%. It rests on 146 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 35.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 62.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.4%. It rests on 288 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 40.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 463 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 38.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 681 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.5%, draws 5.4% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 895 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 39.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.2%, draws 8.7% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 39.7%, draws 7.0% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 33.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 59.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.1% of its games and loses 53.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.