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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System

587K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.0%

40%55%
Floor47.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.

Measured over 587K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 587K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
587K
Best context
57.7% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
45.7% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.1% at 0-999, 53.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,080 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (1,933 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (542 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (6,613 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (7,614 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,857 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (10,166 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (19,530 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (5,489 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (17,959 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (36,886 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (13,585 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (706 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (25,496 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (64,086 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (21,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (1,636 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (31,228 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (81,987 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (26,589 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (36,826 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (77,803 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (17,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (32,357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (29,318 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (5,851 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (7,759 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (143 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (4)
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Taimanov Line
47.1%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line
47.3%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line
51.6%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit
49.2%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System scores 48.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 48.1% — from 587K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
587K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, White wins 45.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 587K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (35K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (320K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (92K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 44.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 141K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 44.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 45.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 42.6%, draws 0.4% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 131 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 45.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 170K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 320K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 92K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 45.8% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.