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Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

38.2%

30%55%
Floor37.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.0%.

Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
11K
Best context
44.0% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
36.8% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 39.2% at 0-999, 17.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 34.7% expected score (93 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (292 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (274 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.5% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (523 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (691 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (794 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.1% expected score (361 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 23.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (891 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (1,318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 29.9% expected score (490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (820 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 36.8% expected score (898 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (305 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (537 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 32.5% expected score (276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 19.6% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 37.4% expected score (301 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 30.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 25.2% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 6.5% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation scores 38.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 37.5% and 39.0% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation, White wins 36.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 60.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.2%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 41.1% (1.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 37.6% in Blitz (4.8K games) against 33.6% in Rapid (1.5K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 37.3%, draws 0.3% and loses 62.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.5%. It rests on 182 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 38.7%, draws 1.8% and loses 59.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.6%. It rests on 625 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 39.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 37.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 60.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.7%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 35.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 61.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 36.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 60.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 35.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.0%. It rests on 880 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 34.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 62.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.3%. It rests on 367 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 39.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.7%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 35.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 60.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.6%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 31.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 64.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.6%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Yates Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 36.8% of its games and loses 60.4%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.