44K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 48.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 48.4%), based on 44K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 51%
Best in Bullet (44%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 44K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (3.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (44.0%) outperforms Classical (39.1%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a sharpness score of 91.4 (decisive), meaning 91.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 39.1% (90% CI: 34.7%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 314 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 41.0% (90% CI: 39.1%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 39.2% (90% CI: 38.2%-40.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.0%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 10.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.8%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.2%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.7%-44.7%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.2%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation has a 39.1% (90% CI: 33.0%-45.4%) win rate for white (166 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.2%.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.