Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation
125K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.
Measured over 125K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 125K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 125K
- Best context
- 57.3% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 47.1% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.5% at 0-999, 57.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (142 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (99 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (516 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (476 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (101 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,211 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,573 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (403 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (2,593 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,475 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (1,067 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (56 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (4,431 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (10,185 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,375 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (165 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (5,778 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (16,115 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,958 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (221 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (7,291 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (18,927 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (3,156 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (87 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (10,258 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (19,611 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (1,500 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (5,458 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (2,283 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (77 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.2% and 52.6% — from 125K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 125K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 125K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.9% (7.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (74K games) against 51.2% in Rapid (13K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 44.8%, draws 1.7% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 261 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 45.6%, draws 2.2% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 46.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 74K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 44.0%, draws 7.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 570 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.2% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.