1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 47.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.0%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 48%
Best in Blitz (46%), worst in Classical (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.7% win rate for white (8.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (46.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.2%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.6%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 103K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 193K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 268K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 251K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 153K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 39.3%-47.1%) win rate for white (428 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.0%) win rate for white (491K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.1%) win rate for white (498K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.0%) win rate for white (105K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a 40.9% (90% CI: 39.5%-42.3%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.