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Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
51.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
41.3% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.1% at 0-999, 51.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (5,232 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (3,329 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (615 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (21,718 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (16,751 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (3,179 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (44,655 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (47,738 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (10,688 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (158 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (77,078 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (93,123 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (22,023 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (665 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (118 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (100,345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (135,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (31,244 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (1,224 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (103,799 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (121,476 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (25,205 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (81,364 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (62,121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (9,642 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (238 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (48,779 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (17,355 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (7,759 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (448 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation scores 47.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 48.0% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation, White wins 45.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 50.8% (8.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.4% in Blitz (498K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (105K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 42.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 44.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 103K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 45.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 193K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 268K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 251K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 153K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 43.2%, draws 1.3% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 428 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 45.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 491K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 498K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 44.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 105K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 40.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 45.8% of its games and loses 50.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.