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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.8%Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.8%Based on 1.1M games
0%51.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.8%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%4.3%46.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 51.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.7% and 51.8%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.0% win rate (10,287 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (31,606 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.4% win rate (73,151 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.8% win rate (148,415 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.1% win rate (247,456 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.4% win rate (302,641 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (215,134 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (91,702 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (13,575 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.7% win rate (797 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (416,984 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (575,652 games)
  • Rapid: 49.1% win rate (134,733 games)
  • Classical: 49.7% win rate (5,801 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (4,694 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (4,174 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (1,377 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (14,324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (13,004 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (4,133 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (28,128 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (34,399 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (10,183 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (281 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (250 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (52,668 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (73,061 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (21,326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (177 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (76,547 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (135,724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (33,107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (1,901 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (90,555 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (171,357 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (38,783 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (1,855 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (84,673 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (109,831 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (20,120 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (485 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (54,085 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (31,948 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (5,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (11,310 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (2,154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 46.1% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.3%) outperforms Classical (43.0%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.7%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 148K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 247K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 303K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 215K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 92K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.9%-49.7%) win rate for white (797 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 46.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.3%) win rate for white (417K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.5%) win rate for white (576K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.6%) win rate for white (135K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.0%-44.1%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 46.1% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.