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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%55%
Floor51.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
56.1% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
45.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.1% at 0-999, 42.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (4,694 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (4,174 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (1,377 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (14,324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (13,004 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (4,133 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (28,128 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (34,399 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (10,183 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (281 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (250 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (52,668 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (73,061 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (21,326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (177 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (76,547 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (135,724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (33,107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (1,901 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (90,555 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (171,357 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (38,783 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (1,855 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (84,673 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (109,831 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (20,120 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (485 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (54,085 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (31,948 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (5,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (11,310 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (2,154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line scores 51.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.7% and 51.8% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line, Black wins 49.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 55.3% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (576K games) against 51.9% in Rapid (135K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 54.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 148K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 247K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 303K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 215K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 92K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.6%, draws 7.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.7%, draws 1.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 797 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 417K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 576K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 49.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 135K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.7%, draws 7.2% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.6% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.