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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit

81K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.8%

40%55%
Floor47.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.

Measured over 81K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 81K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
81K
Best context
54.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
40.5% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.6% at 0-999, 50.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (738 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (594 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (207 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (2,151 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (1,714 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (502 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (3,454 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (3,899 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (5,354 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (7,013 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (1,954 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (84 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (6,650 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (9,746 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (2,796 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (127 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (5,364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,946 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (2,537 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (3,263 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (5,175 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,541 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,019 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,586 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (401 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (312 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (329 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit scores 47.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.1% — from 81K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
81K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 81K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.1% (657 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (40K games) against 49.0% in Rapid (11K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 40.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 43.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 44.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 55.2%, draws 7.7% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 657 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 44.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 40K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 412 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Ginsberg Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.2% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.