7.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 41.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.4% and 42.2%), based on 7.9K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 54% → 38%
Best in Bullet (42%), worst in Rapid (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.1%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 59.7% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (57.1%) outperforms Bullet (56.0%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 225 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 58.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 644 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 59.7% (90% CI: 57.6%-61.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 54.9%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.2%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 52.8%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 930 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 104 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 54.2%-57.8%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 55.9%-58.3%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a 58.3% (90% CI: 55.6%-61.0%) win rate for white (903 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation is statistically favors white with a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.1%-57.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.