Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation
7.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.2%.
Measured over 7.9K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.9K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 7.9K
- Best context
- 42.2% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 38.2% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.7% at 0-999, 39.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (112 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (107 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.8% expected score (195 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (402 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (46 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (429 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (984 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (185 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (433 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (1,601 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (385 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (425 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (1,265 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (232 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (415 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (466 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (48 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (88 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation scores 41.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 40.4% and 42.2% — from 7.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 7.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation, Black wins 39.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 7.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 46.3% (225 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 41.0% in Blitz (4.8K games) against 39.9% in Rapid (903 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.7%, draws 1.1% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 225 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 38.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 644 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 37.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 59.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 930 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 104 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 58.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 903 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Sozin Formation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.6% of its games and loses 57.0%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.