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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation

32K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.9%

45%55%
Floor50.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.4%.

Measured over 32K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 32K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
32K
Best context
58.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
44.1% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
94.2%
Draws
5.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.8% · Blitz best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.3% at 0-999, 51.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (41 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (80 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (286 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (126 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (413 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (686 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (263 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (665 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (513 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.6% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (907 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (2,746 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (634 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,982 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (5,342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (815 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (4,139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (7,069 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (420 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (1,637 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (1,108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation scores 50.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 51.4% — from 32K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
32K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation, White wins 48.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 32K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.1% (2.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.8% in Blitz (19K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (2.9K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 42.4%, draws 5.4% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 306 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 42.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 653 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 43.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 45.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.0%, draws 6.3% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 43.9%, draws 8.5% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 39.9%, draws 8.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 135 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.0% of its games and loses 46.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.