Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation
26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.
Measured over 26K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 26K
- Best context
- 61.1% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 39.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.3%
- Draws
- 6.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 74.3% at 0-999, 44.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (95 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 80.2% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (302 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 74.0% expected score (157 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (722 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (511 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (108 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (1,357 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,548 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (294 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,163 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,943 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (408 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (3,051 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (3,592 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (434 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,483 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (2,759 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (324 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (1,003 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (348 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation scores 47.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 48.0% — from 26K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 26K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 26K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 68.4% (481 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.4% in Blitz (12K games) against 47.0% in Rapid (1.6K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 56.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 131 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 67.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 30.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 68.4%. It rests on 481 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 58.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 55.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 37.3%, draws 8.6% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.5%, draws 10.4% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.6%, draws 7.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.8%, draws 8.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.1% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.