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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation

26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 48.0%Based on 26K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%6.7%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Nxd4
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation
Analyzen=26K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 48.0%), based on 26K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.1 · Trap factor: -31.0 · n=26K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 72% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 72.1% win rate (20 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.2% win rate (131 games)
  • 1200-1399: 67.0% win rate (481 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.7% win rate (1,347 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.4% win rate (3,212 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (5,544 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.5% win rate (7,104 games)
  • 2200-2499: 37.3% win rate (6,572 games)
  • 2500+: 37.5% win rate (1,358 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.9% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (12,187 games)
  • Blitz: 41.6% win rate (11,897 games)
  • Rapid: 42.8% win rate (1,601 games)
  • Classical: 38.7% win rate (67 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (95 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 80.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (302 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 74.0% expected score (157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (722 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (511 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (1,357 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,548 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (294 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,943 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (408 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (3,051 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (3,592 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (434 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,483 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (2,759 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (324 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (1,003 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (348 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 26K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (6.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.8%) outperforms Classical (56.2%) by -5.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 40.4% (90% CI: 33.5%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 131 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 30.2% (90% CI: 26.8%-33.6%) win rate for white, based on 481 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 38.5% (90% CI: 36.3%-40.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 40.6% (90% CI: 39.2%-42.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.1%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 10.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.4%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.6%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.8%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Endgame Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.