Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4
13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.2%.
Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 13K
- Best context
- 47.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.1% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.8%
- Draws
- 6.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.7% at 0-999, 43.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (68 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (128 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (179 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (417 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (60 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (551 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (1,442 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (160 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,267 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (2,554 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (263 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (2,125 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (2,565 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (175 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (1,032 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (164 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 scores 45.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.8% and 46.2% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4, Black wins 42.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 13K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (212 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.4% in Blitz (7.3K games) against 50.1% in Rapid (688 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4?
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 212 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.2%, draws 5.7% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 661 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.1%, draws 6.7% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.3%, draws 7.2% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.1%, draws 6.6% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 8.0% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 688 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with f4 is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.4% of its games and loses 51.5%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.