Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation
2.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
33.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 35.2%.
Measured over 2.5K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.5K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.5K
- Best context
- 32.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1200-1399, 27.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (30 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (69 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (77 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (395 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 35.2% expected score (350 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (948 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 26.4% expected score (399 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 27.2% expected score (108 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation scores 33.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 32.0% and 35.2% — from 2.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation, Black wins 31.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 64.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.6%. It rests on 2.5K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 47.3% (108 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 33.6% in Blitz (1.5K games) against 45.0% in Rapid (58 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 108 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 35.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 60.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.5%. It rests on 494 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 30.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 63.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.4%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 24.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 71.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 26.5%. It rests on 508 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 30.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 65.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.8%. It rests on 863 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 30.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 63.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.6%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, Edge Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 31.1% of its games and loses 64.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.