Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer

4.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
7...g6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.1%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.2%.

Measured over 4.9K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.9K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
4.9K
Best context
49.4% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Worst context
48.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.6% at 0-999, 65.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (138 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (189 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (248 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (313 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (88 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (303 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (551 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (283 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (627 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (237 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (478 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (267 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.7% expected score (152 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 51.2% — from 4.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
4.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer, Black wins 47.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 4.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer performs best for Black at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 63.7% (215 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.7% in Blitz (2.6K games) against 52.5% in Rapid (655 games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer?

The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 150 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 378 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 651 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 999 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 836 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.6%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 534 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 58.9%, draws 9.5% and loses 31.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.7%. It rests on 215 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.8%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.5%, draws 7.8% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 655 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.5% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.