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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined

950K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.0%Based on 950K games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.0%
Outcome Distribution
46.1%5.7%48.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...cxd4
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined
Analyzen=950K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 48.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 49.0%), based on 950K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.4% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.0% win rate (482 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.2% win rate (3,040 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.7% win rate (12,568 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.2% win rate (42,095 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.8% win rate (108,128 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.7% win rate (221,216 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (279,609 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.3% win rate (235,383 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (47,322 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in UltraBullet (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.9% win rate (100 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (274,976 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (561,220 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (107,859 games)
  • Classical: 48.5% win rate (5,688 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (287 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.8% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,215 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (233 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (4,978 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (6,345 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (1,218 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (12,750 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (24,239 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (4,867 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (24,353 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (67,073 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (15,467 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (44,393 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (142,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (32,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (2,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (62,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (179,868 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (36,066 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (1,403 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (89,207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (128,616 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (17,221 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (317 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (35,168 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (11,661 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (471 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 950K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (47K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.2%) outperforms Classical (41.8%) by 8.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 482 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 108K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 221K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 280K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 235K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 54.7% (90% CI: 46.5%-62.7%) win rate for white (100 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (275K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.0%) win rate for white (561K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.2%) win rate for white (108K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a 41.8% (90% CI: 40.7%-42.9%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined is statistically balanced with a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.