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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined

950K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.9%

45%55%
Floor48.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.0%.

Measured over 950K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 950K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
950K
Best context
58.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
Worst context
41.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.3%
Draws
5.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.4% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.6% at 0-999, 39.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (287 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.8% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,215 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (233 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (4,978 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (6,345 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (1,218 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (12,750 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (24,239 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (4,867 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (24,353 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (67,073 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (15,467 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (44,393 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (142,046 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (32,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (2,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (62,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (179,868 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (36,066 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (1,403 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (89,207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (128,616 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (17,221 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (317 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (35,168 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (11,661 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (471 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined scores 48.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.8% and 49.0% — from 950K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
950K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined, Black wins 46.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 950K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.3% (221K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (561K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (108K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.0%, draws 1.6% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 482 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 108K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 221K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.0% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 280K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 235K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.4%, draws 7.3% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 39.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 100 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 275K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 561K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.8%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 108K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 48.5%, draws 9.6% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Smith-Morra Declined is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.